Russian mediasphere analysis in comparison with general trends and popularity of related news on the Russo-Ukrainian war in different regions.
More military news is trending in Russia. As expected, the leading theme is pseudo analytical propaganda such as Zelenskyy’s escape to Romania. Why there? The second news tells who shot a Romanian fighter jet and a helicopter near the Ukrainian border (fighter jet MiG Lancer BBC and helicopter IAR-330 Puma). The following news pieces are about several dead men from Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. The propaganda noticeably starts to use peaceful rhetoric in a kind of “children of different nations support piece” (Komsomolskaya Pravda about a student poetic event in St. Petersburg).
Top news from Tatarstan is the death of Stanislav Gerasimov in Ukraine, who belonged to the Bavlinsk people. Popular stories are about the possible default and likely cryptocurrency boom. Bashkortostan’s top news tells about two local men who died in Ukraine: lieutenant Alexey Kondratiev and sergeant Kuzma Nikolaev.
As we can see, in Tatarstan and Bashkortostan there is information about dead people with Russian surnames. By the way, the same line is noticeable in Buryatia: many news reports about the burial of lieutenant Ilia Semionov. Another popular story is about eight people who died in Ukraine, but their names are still hidden. Some pieces mention forty wounded from Buryatia. The top news is a statement of the local Soldier Mothers Committee that calls to fight against “enemy propaganda” and “telephone scam”. Participants of a special round table in Ulan-Ude declared that they are losing the information war on their own land. It is not only about the Internet. Somebody was spreading pictures with dead bodies. Even though only three war prisoners are officially confirmed, over eighty claims came from families.
Obviously, it is an attempt to calm the people down: say, not only Bashkir and Tatar are being sent to war. The topic is discussed among Bashkir nationalists. For example, seeing the names of dead and captured published by Ukrainians, the Telegram-channel “Tot samyy Bashkort” concludes that over 30% of the invaders come from the nations enslaved by Russia. There are two tasks: lower the anti-war spirit among the Russians, and “correct the demographic situation” by reducing the sizes of national minorities.
There is fighting against “fakes” in Altai Republic: a local parliament speaker (El Kurultai) Artur Kokhoev calls to ignore “rumors” and support the army.
In Smolensk the top news is, again, propaganda about Zelenskyy leaving Ukraine. But this time he went to Poland. Also, mentioned a journalist from Smolensk who got under shelling in Donbas.
In St. Petersburg the most interesting theme is the economy: rising prices, and leaving Western companies. However, there is news about the first killed soldier from the Leningrad region.
Belgorod: about half of the news relates to war. Among the most popular: collecting humanitarian help for Ukrainians and refugees, Russian columns and sounds of explosions in districts near the border. The largest social media pages, controlled by Russian administrators, the top news is about supporting the war in Ukraine by local governments and the people. However, there are no comments under the publications, even though the reactions are mostly favourable. One one the pages posted a video on March 5 showing that large territory of Ukraine has been occupied. The publications about sanctions and stopping of foreign brands production supply have the majority of favourable comments. Also, there is a video with the President of Ukraine addressing NATO about closing Ukraine’s airspace. The comments are overwhelmingly pro-Russian, rare dissenting voices are being deleted.
Voronezh: official war-related news did not get to the top-5, but they are still present lower in the ranks. Among those: sanctions against Russia, and when the resulting crisis may end. Russian vice-premier Yurii Borisov claims that it will last from 3 to 5 months. There is news about the British statement on placing Ukrainian refugees in houses confiscated from Russian oligarchs. The same article refers to the Duma legislator who proposes to the refugees from Donbas in apartments of the Russians who died from coronavirus. The biggest Voronezh’s Vkontakte group discusses blocked Facebook. The majority of participants support the government’s decision. Other sanctions are being discussed too.
Rostov-on-Don: among the top-5 news there is a story about the Voronezh’s officials offering to donate their salaries to refugees from Donbas. A lot of news relates to sanctions and Western brands leaving Russia; among those there is a neutrally depicted story of US’s Victoria Nuland claiming that sanctions will be lifted only after Russia takes all the forces away from Ukraine, helps to restore the destroyed infrastructure and recognizes Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The biggest social media groups support the war, as the official news says; however, the publication on supporting the military has many anti-war comments.
There is popular news in Chechnya groups about the Mufti supporting the war. The majority of comments support the war, but anti-war ones are present too.
Dagestan: the official news and social media pages did not publish war-related stories in the recent days.
Thus, the government propaganda still dominates, however, it is forced to display more information about the war. The control over media and comments in areas near the border is tough; national republics unsuccessfully try to stop Ukrainian informational attacks. Especially problematic situation is in Buryatia, where local officials and the pro-government unit of the Soldier Mothers Committee held round table talks. Russia tries to emphasise on war-participation of Russians who came from the national republics to stop their discontent. On the other hand, in bigger cities (St. Petersburg) people are more interested in the economic aspects.
Yurii Oliinyk, Head of Research Programs, NAC «Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions», PhD in Political Sciences
Mykhailo Kubliy, PhD in Historical Sciences
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