Non-governmental analytical center “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions” continues its long-term project of monitoring regional processes in the Russian Federation.
The purpose of the research is to identify and track the dynamics of conflict-generating and disintegrative factors that contribute to the deconstruction of the Russian Federation and its disappearance as a geopolitical reality.
The monitoring object is the information field of the Russian Federation, analyzing the most popular news from various regions of Russia each month, which will provide a fairly clear understanding of the internal processes taking place within the aggressor state’s territory and allow monitoring of conflict-generating regional processes.
The project is carried out in partnership with the “Anti-Imperial Block of Nations” initiative, as well as the public organization “Ukrainian Student”. We invite interested experts and organizations to join the partnership.
Monitoring of Regional Processes in the Russian Federation
April – 2024
The situation in Russia continues to gradually complicate, with the center losing control over events while maintaining information censorship. A particular feature of this period has been the massive environmental disasters, particularly floods in the Orenburg and Kurgan regions.
REGIONS
A) Caucasus
Kuban
The Kuban Cossacks continue to play a role as an influential regional force, contributing to the self-identification of the region’s population as “Cossacks,” but they do not exceed the boundaries of the permissible imperial worldview and discourse. Therefore, the most notable protest actions are related to ecological problems rather than war or national consciousness. The implementation of Moscow’s policy on the formation of a pocket Kuban Cossack Army continues, serving as an instrument of modern imperial policy. This is achieved through the distortion of historical memory, even regarding its most tragic aspects, as well as ideological indoctrination of youth and creating comfortable conditions for the administrative elite of the region.
Karachay-Cherkessia
On April 22, an attack on a police patrol in Karachayevsk occurred. One of the attackers, Ruslan Semenov, is on the list of extremists and terrorists. This gives grounds to classify the event not as criminal actions but as a manifestation of the activity of the military-political opposition in Karachay-Cherkessia.
Kabardino-Balkaria
Occupiers neutralized a fairly large group consisting of local residents. This indicates the potential of anti-system movements among local communities. Law enforcement officers blocked 12 “militants” in a garden society in Nalchik, killing several of them. The “militants” liquidated by special services in the outskirts of Nalchik turned out to be residents of Kabardino-Balkaria. Government representatives recognize the activity of armed resistance groups formed on religious and national grounds as the main threat.
Chechnya and Ingushetia
Overall, it can be said that the situation in Chechnya and Ingushetia during the first half of April has not changed compared to the second half of March. As before, the authorities of these republics demonstrate loyalty and solidarity to the Russian dictator and make every effort to show a semblance of prosperity in the territory under their control.
A significant event was the detention by the Dagestani police of the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Chechnya, Alikhan Tsakaev, for drunk driving, which was subsequently effectively repelled by Chechen law enforcement. Later, the head of Dagestan, Sergey Melikov, stated: “The incident that occurred at the checkpoint ‘Gherzel’ undoubtedly requires the most careful and detailed analysis and, of course, will not affect our fraternal and good neighborly relations with the Chechen people.”
Dagestan
On March 31 in Dagestan, in the regional capital Makhachkala and Kaspiysk, Russian occupiers conducted a “counter-terrorist operation” against the underground movement. During the operation, the FSB surrounded a block on Ahmet-Khan Sultan Street. Three individuals were detained, allegedly planning an explosion on the waterfront or in Victory Park in Kaspiysk (according to the FSB, one of the detainees “confessed” to this). During the search of the detention sites, automatic weapons, ammunition, and a sniper rifle ready for use were found. The occupation administration demonstratively reminds about the danger of radical calls, indicating the spread of dissatisfaction.
In mid-April in Dagestan, criminal proceedings against human rights defenders are ongoing, but local police often avoid using force. At the same time, a campaign against local “corrupt officials” in local government, closely associated with the regional elite, is unfolding. Former and current employees of “Rosseti North Caucasus” and the branch of “Dagenergo” are accused of embezzling 2.8 billion rubles from the budget. The head of the land and property relations department of the Izberbash administration, accused of fraud and abuse of office, has been taken into custody. He is the third defendant in a criminal case of illegal transfer of land to the company “ECO” and illegal issuance of permits for the construction of an object. At the beginning of April, events were also held to mark the 150th anniversary of the national poet Suleyman Stalsky. It is worth noting the deepening of direct economic cooperation with Muslim states, in particular the UAE. Despite dependence on the Kremlin, local authorities participate in cross-border negotiations (primarily with Azerbaijan).
Republic of Kalmykia
Deputy of the Congress of the Oirat-Kalmyk people Vladimir Davdanov is declared wanted.
A meeting between the head of Kalmykia Batu Hasikov and Vladimir Putin did not take place due to the latter’s schedule change. In early May, the airport in Elista, the first airport in the Southern Federal District, was supposed to resume operations. However, the opening of the airport was postponed without specifying reasons. Currently, no airline has announced flights to Elista.
B) Idel-Ural
Chuvashia
In Chuvashia, an illusion of combating corruption is being created. However, as can be seen in unofficial news, not everything is going well. For example, in the news about a competition on anti-corruption education, it is mentioned that the deputy head of the republic himself accepts bribes, but for some reason, he is not held accountable for it. The region faces significant economic problems, as well as internal issues with the mood of the population. The authorities pretend to conduct anti-corruption activities.
Republic of Bashkortostan
Law enforcement officers in Bashkortostan detained a streamer who “celebrated” terrorism in Crocus during a stream and called for other terrorist acts – “It is mourning in Moscow, but there is no mourning in Bashkortostan.” At least two residents of St. Petersburg were detained for comments about the attack in “Crocus” on social media.
C) Siberia and the Far East
North
In Chukotka, events were held in memory of those who died in “Crocus City Hall” on March 24. The next day, the “Cranes” action began in several places in Chukotka, where people used the symbol of white cranes and the song “Cranes” as a way to honor the memory of the deceased. It is known that due to the terrorist attack, mass events in the Komi Republic were banned until March 29.
A teenager in Krasnoyarsk was offered 15,000 rubles via Telegram for setting fire to relay cabinets on the section of the Krasnoyarsk railway in the suburbs of Achinsk. In Novosibirsk, a drone landed on the roof of a hydroelectric power station. Launching drones there is prohibited. In the Tyumen region, law enforcement officers stopped the operation of a workshop for the conversion of weapons. The man independently purchased components and modified “barrels” for sale.
Meanwhile, Yakutia is preparing snipers for the Special Forces. The area of the training ground is over 400 hectares. There is a skill improvement program for military personnel sent from the Special Forces. Training has already taken place twice directly in the combat zone.
The so-called “LNR” and northern regions: restoration, trips to the ATO zone, cooperation
Cooperation between terrorist republics and remote subjects of the federation continues. On April 4, it became known that the so-called LPR signed a cooperation agreement with Yakutia. At the end of March, there was also a report in Yakut media about journalists’ trip to the temporarily occupied Dokuchaevsk. This city is “sponsored” by Yakutia, which transferred it from the Volgograd region.
Before that, for two years, Yakutia “took care” of the Kirovsk agglomeration. It is noteworthy that the region of Dokuchaevsk will include the sadly familiar to Ukrainians village of Olenivka. This region is very close to the front line. Elections for the president of Russia were held in Olenivka in 2024.
Along with restoration work, Russian schools and kindergartens will appear in the area, which will conduct Russian propaganda and indoctrination among those children who have not yet moved to the territory controlled by Ukraine.
Yakutia’s head Aisen Nikolaev also visited the ATO zone, meeting with the head of the so-called DPR, Pushilin, in the same Dokuchaevsk.
Censorship on social media
At least several cases were recorded within a week when people received a sentence for posts on social media.
A resident of Novosibirsk was sentenced to a one-year suspended sentence “for rehabilitating Nazism” because she “left an offensive post in social networks for May 9” in a group on a social network. Another resident of Novosibirsk was also sentenced to a two-year suspended sentence “for rehabilitating Nazism” for thoughts on VK regarding the USSR.
Nikolai Konashenkov published a post on social media asking why “Crocus” was attacked, not the Kremlin, and was arrested for it.
Economy and Sanctions
In Chukotka, they plan to build a “micro-NPP” by July 1. They also plan to construct a ski base in Syktyvkar. In the Komi Republic in 2024, the construction of two inter-settlement gas pipelines is planned to start, as well as to switch eight boiler houses to natural gas. Since the beginning of the year, nearly 3 tons of gold have been obtained in Chukotka.
Russia, fearing Ukrainian attacks, is sending military Il-76 aircraft, which were stationed in Pskov on the border with Estonia, to Siberia – approximately 10 aircraft. Together with them are about 1500 military personnel.
The diamonds of Yakutia, which are almost impossible to sell due to sanctions, will be bought by the Russian Ministry of Finance. In the second half of 2023, the profits of “Alrosa” – the largest diamond miner in Russia – fell by 47%. 61% of diamonds remain unsold. Immediately after 24.02.2022, “Alrosa” fell under sanctions.
Republic of Tyva
About 100 Tuvinians, mainly prisoners, were sent to serve in the Special Forces. According to official data in the media, 540 Tuvinians were killed during the war in Ukraine. Tuva sent a group of forensic experts to Rostov to identify the dead. In Tuva, a Unified Center for Assistance to Servicemen and Families of the Missing has been created.
Republic of Buryatia
On April 26, 2024, the head of the Federal Agency for Nationality Affairs of the Russian Federation, Abdulgamed Bulatov, announced a thousandfold increase in nationalist and separatist propaganda in Buryatia since the beginning of the war. The only communist deputy in the city council of Ulan-Ude, Viktor Yevreyev, wrote a statement about leaving the party.
The local Khural abolished direct elections of the mayor of Ulan-Ude. Now he will be appointed. Former head of the People’s Khural (local parliament) Tsyren-Dasho Dorzhiev, who was detained, was taken into custody for 2 months under Article 159.4 of the Criminal Code “Fraud”; he is accused of embezzling 36 million rubles during the construction of the Sosnovy Ozersky SSh 1 in conspiracy with a group of individuals.
In 2024, the adoption of a municipal program for the protection of the titular language with the requirement for entrepreneurs to print signs in two languages is planned. On April 23, a delegation from the Republic of Buryatia headed by Alexey Tsydenov visited China, Lhasa, the capital of the Tibet Autonomous Region. The purpose of the visit is tourism cooperation in the line of Buddhism.
From August 12 to 14, 2024, in Ulan-Ude (the capital of Buryatia), it is planned to hold the II International Buddhist Forum on the topic “Traditional Buddhism and the Challenges of Modernity.” Buryatia claims to be the center of the Buddhist world in the Russian Federation. On April 28, the public council for the celebration of the 300th anniversary of Kyakhta confirmed the return to the dual name of the city Kyakhta-Troitskosavsk. In fact, the colonial name of the city from the time of the Russian Empire has been restored.
On April 26, a competition in the Buryat language was held at the Buddhist University “Dashi Choinkhorlin” named after D.D. Ivoginsky Datsan. At the same time, the Buryat State University closed the Department of Buryat Language and opened courses in Russian for foreigners. On April 30, 2024, fires broke out in various parts of Ulan-Ude, caused by strong hurricane winds, especially a large fire on the territory of a military unit in the village of Vostochnoye.
About 100 hectares of forest were burning. In Buryatia, military training camps for students of technical schools and colleges are held from April 1 to 26 as part of the federal project “Patriotic Education.” On the territory of the 11th separate guards assault landing Suworow brigade. Within four weeks, it is planned to cover 1200 cadets. Under the guise of conducting reservist training in Buryatia, draft notices are being distributed, which could be interpreted as covert mobilization.
Primorsky Krai
The bordering Chinese city of Hunchun in Primorsky Krai is implementing a grassroots initiative to stabilize the situation on the border with Russia and North Korea. Recruitment of guards from the local population has already begun, and they are subject to quite serious requirements. For example, they must not be residents of the border villages of Hunchun, according to the Biang.ru portal.
Deputies of the legislative assembly of the Zabaykalsky Krai have adopted a law abolishing the position of city manager in the city of Chita. Now all power in Chita is supposed to be concentrated back in the hands of the mayor. The division of municipal power occurred in 2014 at the initiative of Governor Konstantin Ilkovsky.
Two employees of the regional branch of Rostekhnadzor have been detained on suspicion of negligence in connection with the tragedy that occurred at the Pioneer mine in the Amur region. Thirteen miners remain underground, although the rescue operation has been suspended.
A significant problem at the moment remains ecology, particularly with the approaching period of forest fires. In mid-April, the news is forced to publish the most public manifestations of anti-government sentiments, while local officials report on counterterrorism efforts. Natural disasters remain the main topics of concern. At the end of the month, significant disruptions in the supply of social products, especially cereals, tea, and pasta, are noted in Vladivostok.
Politically, the main trend by the end of the month is the ongoing repression against remnants of supporters of former Governor Furgal in the Far East. The “I/We Sergei Furgal” movement has been added to the list of extremist organizations.
Central Regions
Moscow Region
Most events in the first week of April were related to pressure on potential opposition figures, as well as harassment of migrants. It’s interesting how the Kremlin divided spheres of pressure. While the “lower ranks” engaged in riots against Kyrgyz, Tajiks, and Uzbeks, the courts and the FSB focused on strengthening persecution of liberal journalists and human rights activists.
The situation with the persecution of opposition figures continues. Anti-migrant sentiments are also spreading. Social tensions are rising, leading to increasingly chaotic searches for potential enemies in the country, which in turn may lead to the delegitimization of the Kremlin’s power elites.
Special attention is drawn to the activation of “snitching” among Russian elites and ordinary citizens. UAV attacks cause panic among military and law enforcement agencies, which manifests in a “witch hunt” that is gaining momentum.
The witch hunt extends to the Ministry of Defense and personally to Shoigu. Rumors suggest Putin is trying to undermine the authority of the Russian Ministry of Defense to maintain the balance of power in the Kremlin. Moscow’s further actions will only deepen distrust between departments and may exacerbate the elite’s disintegration.
Forecast
Over the next few weeks, a hot conflict between migrants and nationalists is possible. After that, Russian propaganda, as before the elections, will spread a narrative about peaceful coexistence of all nations in Russia and will try to quell the conflict (perhaps even by arresting several Russian nationalists).
Karelia
The region shares a border with Finland. The blocking of the border from the Helsinki side, caused by Moscow’s aggressive policy, undoubtedly affects the life of the region, although significant protests on this issue were not recorded during the monitoring period. The Russian Ministry of Defense has deployed “Iskanders” in Karelia, justifying it as a response to Finland’s NATO membership.
The region is home to the Sandarmokh memorial site, where, among others, prominent figures of the Ukrainian social movement of the 1920s-1930s were executed. However, the memorial is expected to be in a neglected state. The Russian government seeks to erase Stalinist terror from social memory.
Society is in a tense state after the Krokus terrorist attack. The tension has reached Karelia. Locals nervously react to anything reminiscent of shootings, explosions, etc. Mass events, including festivals, are canceled. The Kremlin elite has achieved its goal – panic has been sown.
The main factors causing social unrest are environmental problems, particularly the proper use of reservoirs and access points to them. The fake opposition in the form of “Fair Russia” tries to take control of these processes by leading them. Local authorities accommodate them, making concessions. The goal of this “circus” is obvious. “Fair Russia” thus positions itself as the only effective opposition, aiming to consolidate public dissatisfaction around itself and continue to direct it in the “right” direction.
Separately, we note the anxiety of the authorities on the eve of the traditional “Victory Day” on May 9th. This year, tension and panic are felt, leading to the restriction of mass events and even recommendations to move the traditional “Immortal Regiment” march online.
Eastern Slobozhanshchyna
The transfer of hostilities to the territory of the aggressor country sharply affects border regions. After the elections, the local media space is filled with news of shelling and clashes on the border with Ukraine. Any separatist or anti-war tendencies come either from the Ukrainian army and Russian volunteers or from the exhausted local population shelled by the artillery.
This project is carried out in partnership with:
The initiative “Anti-Imperial Bloc of Peoples”. Partner page: ABN pages and the Facebook group, website: https://abn.org.ua
The public organization “Ukrainian Student”.
The non-governmental analytical center “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions” in 2024 will conduct a series of research projects on the collapse of Russia and Ukraine’s national interests in the world – see more on our resources https://linktr.ee/nac.ussd
We invite interested experts and organizations to join the partnership.
Authors’ team:
Yuriy Syrotyuk
Yuriy Oliynyk
Mykhailo Kubliy
Mykola Volhov
Mykhailo Aleksandrov
Karyna Konyaeva
Olga Yakovets
Anatoliy Maksymov
Daria Shapoval
Irina Yevdochenko
Yaroslav Nitsa
Mykhailo Tsyrulnyk
Ivan Yaniuk
Olena Makovetska
Marta Kolesnyk
Yulia Gryshyna
Anna Nedashkivska
Translated into English by Oleksandr Chupak
April – 2024
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