War Index Presantation

The Non-Governmental Analytical Center “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions” continues its annual project monitoring global military activity. On February 5th, 2026, at 11:30 AM, the presentation of the “War Index 2025” will take place at the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center (Ukrainian House).

The War Index is a project providing annual monitoring of military conflicts for 2025. It ranks military-political conflicts and diplomatic clashes from the most intense and large-scale to the least visible but potentially dangerous. The methodology involves examining global conflicts actively manifesting during the research period through indicators that define their nature, progression, and significance for regional and global security. These are classified by tension level: from high-intensity “hot” wars to minimum-level confrontations.

Speakers:

• Yuriy Syrotyuk, Honorary President of “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions,” MP of Ukraine, VII convocation, Chief Sergeant of the fire support company, 5th Separate Assault Kyiv Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
• Yuriy Oliynyk, PhD in Political Science, Director of “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions,” serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
• Andriy Rudyk, PhD in Social and Behavioral Sciences, officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
• Marta Oliynyk-Dyomochko, PhD in Political Science, Africanist researcher, Global Ukraine Foundation (online).
• Bohdan Cherkas, PhD in Political Science, Assistant at the Department of Regional Studies, Institute of International Relations of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv (online).
• Kateryna Shymkevych, PhD in Historical Sciences, expert at the Analytical Center for Balkan Studies (online).
• Oleksandr Chupak, Head of Economic Programs at “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions.”
• Oleksiy Tkachenko, expert at “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions,” officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
• Anatoliy Demeshchuk, PhD in Historical Sciences, expert at the Analytical Center for Balkan Studies (online).

• In 2025, the Russian-Ukrainian war remained the central global event. In terms of technical intensity, it has become one of the largest since the Korean War and the most significant conflict in Europe since 1945. The Palestine-Israel war also carries serious global consequences; having begun in 2023 with a Hamas terror attack, it escalated into Israeli military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, leading to reciprocal airstrikes between Iran and Israel that culminated in June 2025 with US involvement. In Syria, a new Sunni government is consolidating control, displacing the remnants of both pro-Iranian and pro-American forces.
• Tension is rising in the Pacific region. The situation around Taiwan remains traditionally complex due to regular Chinese naval exercises. The demonstration of military threats by the DPRK, which acts as an active ally of the RF in the war against Ukraine, causes particular concern. Another epicenter of instability is South Asia, where the permanent conflict between India and Pakistan poses the risk of nuclear weapon usage.
• In less developed nations, multi-year conflicts persist, though many are decreasing in intensity due to negotiation processes (e.g., in Ethiopia and the DR Congo). Tension is mounting in West Africa, where pro-Russian governments struggle to control territory. A significant factor is also the diplomatic tension within NATO caused by RF provocations and the diplomatic conflict over Greenland.
• Force remains the primary argument for resolving international disputes, its role growing as the leading global player—the USA—oversees the disruption of international order. A defining feature has been the return of conventional warfare, with frontal clashes between large armies. Conversely, technical proficiency—especially in the accuracy and speed of data transmission—has become vital. The Russian-Ukrainian war is part of a global “silent Third World War” unfolding since 2011 across many theaters. It is an undeclared war involving all components of “fourth-generation warfare.” Alongside the US-PRC proxy confrontation, regional leaders—Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia—are actively intervening in power competition. Networked paramilitary formations and quasi-states are filling “dead zones” outside the reach of national governments. Private armies are now engaged at full capacity.
• Direct military interventions, paired with non-military instruments of pressure, reinforce the trend of using force to achieve political goals.
• Overall, global tension continues to rise. This year, we have indexed 47 conflicts (including hot wars, diplomatic confrontations, and internal political crises). These consist of: 8 Wars, 2 Border Clashes, 16 Local Conflicts, 3 Military Coups or attempts, 11 Manifestations of internal political crisis, 7 Points of diplomatic confrontation. For comparison, 36 episodes were indexed last year.

Project Partners:

• Department of Regional Studies, Institute of International Relations of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv.
• Analytical Center for Balkan Studies.
• Global Ukraine Foundation.

Target Audience: Political and social journalists, military and international experts.

Streaming: The presentation will be broadcast on:

• NAC USSD Facebook page: facebook.com/nac.ussd
• UCMC Facebook page: facebook.com/UCMCF/
• UCMC YouTube channel: youtube.com/user/UACrisisMediaCenter

Press Service of “Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions”