The war progress
Let’s summarise the events of five days of our holy war for freedom.
After the plan of total blitzkrieg has wholly failed, Moscow is forced to turn to more exhausting battles. In some directions, their forces stop because they do not have sufficient power and moral readiness to fight actively. As the February 26 advances failed, Putin has fired Russian Chief of Staff Gerasimov, but this information was kept secret by the Russian military leaders. Perhaps, the new Chief is developing a plan to exit the changing situation that caused a relatively decreased intensity of land actions during February 27-28.
A somewhat successful advancement occurs on the southern side where groups of Russian forces circumvent big cities, try to reach Mariupol, and block the United Forces that successfully hold the enemy in Donbas. At the same time, Moscow invaders are being distracted in Kherson and Eastern directions and cannot gather sufficient forces in one place. They do not control temporarily occupied cities (Melitopol and partially Berdiansk). They suffer significant losses from Ukraine’s Bayraktars and artillery.
Moscow is now employing the tactics of full-scale terrorizing of civilians: launching GRAD missiles in Kharkiv, bombing Kyiv and surroundings (Brovary, Vasylkiv and its neighboring airbase, Irpin), Chernihiv, shootings in Okhtyrka, Mykolaiv. Currently, the aggressor’s key objective is to block and gain control over the biggest cities: Kyiv and Kharkiv. But they critically lack forces for successful land advance. Near Kyiv, Ukraine’s forces destroy enemy groups in Irpin and Makariv areas. Periodic attempts to enter Kharkiv do not bring results. The intensity of rocket and air attacks decreased due to the enemy exhausting its potential, and Ukraine started to get fighter jets and anti-aircraft systems. Ukraine’s air forces keep destroying hostile machines successfully.
According to the Ministry of Defence data, from February 24 to March 1, as of 06:00, Ukraine destroyed and damaged: 29 jets, 29 helicopters, 198 tanks, 846 armored vehicles, 77 artillery systems, 7 anti-aircraft systems, 24 multiple rocket launchers, 60 cisterns with fuel, 3 unmanned aerial vehicles, 2 ships, and 305 automobiles.
At the moment, we can see dangerous movements at the Volyn and Rivne region borders. So far Lukashenko is not daring to through his army into the war and there is a deficit of Russian forces on the West. However, the situation is being escalated to distract Ukraine’s soldiers from key Kyiv, Kharkiv, and South directions. Similarly, unsuccessful shootings of Mykolaiv and Odesa can be called distraction attempts.
Ukraine’s great accomplishment is shifting towards the tactics of national war and deployment of territorial defense, which allows the armed forces to focus on the essential directions, takes over security checkpoints, and holds the enemy in cities.
Intensity
Full-scale war between Ukraine and Russia (that uses Belarus’s logistics network).
Casualties
According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence data, as of the morning of March 1, there are 5710 killed and 200 captured Russians.
As Ukraine’s Ministry of Healthcare informs, since the beginning of the Russian invasion, 352 people have died, including 16 children. 2040 civilians were wounded, including 45 children.
Humanitarian consequences
Hundreds of dead Ukrainian civilians. The majority resulted from bombing Kyiv and its surroundings, Chernihiv, Sumy, Okhtyrka, and Kharkiv.
The aggressor openly breaks war rules, covers itself with Ukrainian or white flags, tries to gather civilians for fake evacuations to put them in front of tank columns.
Negotiations
The aggressor has initiated the negotiations because it cannot reach the objectives. As days pass, Ukraine’s positions are going to improve.
On February 27, Moscow initiated negotiations at the Belarus border, Ukrainian delegation is going there too. The talks were held on February 28; no information has been uncovered. Every hour of Ukraine’s resistance makes the Russian position weaker.
Global impact
Ukraine achieved a total informational victory. Among its people, that entirely became a NATION. There is no longer a competition of different points of view on the current war among other countries. Finally, among Russian people. Even their propagandists must admit that the war is not going as planned.
Diplomatically: disconnecting from SWIFT and cutting Russian access to modern technologies is a reality. Bosporus is closed, Ukraine gets arms and equipment. Everything is good.
The last Putin’s argument is a nuclear threat, getting Moscow’s strategic forces ready on February 27. However, the Western countries do not submit (as Washington declared, they will not be threatened). Also, on February 28, the Chinese called for restraint, halting the fire and escalation, meaning that China was not ready to support Putin. If Russians launch a nuclear attack, NATO may hit them and China (to disarm it as there may be no other chance to do so).
Tendencies
The upcoming days are going to be complicated. The enemy will try to spread panic by hitting civilians – backside landings, calling for negotiations and regroupings. Let’s get ready.
Forecast
Active fighting will lose intensity over the next few days. However, Moscow tries to bring first-hand reserves from inside the country to turn the tide near Kyiv and Kharkiv. A lot depends on how Moscow elites feel about the invasion; some have already declared their disappointment about the Russian blockade and the upcoming economic collapse.
Yurii Oliinyk, head of research programs, NAC «Ukrainian Studies of Strategic Disquisitions»
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